UP Opinion Poll: Mayawati flies high

Ref: Asim Khan, CNN-IBN http://www.ibnlive.com/news/up-opinion-poll-mayawati-flies-high/38951-4.html

New Delhi: This wedding season, the most eligible contenders for the bride called Uttar Pradesh have run just half the marathon so far. The CNN-IBN Indian Express Opinion on the UP Polls tells us that the odds against the main suitors are changing fast.

The BJP has now emerged at the second position, pushing the incumbent SP to third, but it's Mayawati's Elephant that has raced ahead of the others.While 28 per cent of the respondents in the poll favoured the BSP, 22 per cent chose the SP.But the BJP has sprung a surprise bagging 23 per cent of the votes. While the Congress is still trailing behind and the others have got 18 per cent vote share.

In terms of seat projection, out of a total of 403 seats, the BSP, the polls say, is set to get 150 to 160 seats.The SP will get 85 to 95, and the BJP's tally finally should be 95 to 105.

The Congress will get 25 to 30 seats and the others including the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Jan Morcha will get 30 to 35 seats.

So how does one explain BJP's much-improved tally? It's possibly the Kurmi vote.

Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma left Mulayam Singh just before the polls. And the BJP's alliance with the Kurmi dominated Apna Dal has helped the saffron brigade.

There's been a 33 per cent swing of Kurmi vote in favour of the BJP. And the SP has lost 22 per cent of their Kurmi Base.

Will Mualayam pay heavily for the Kurmi vote? Will the BJP maintain its grip over its traditional upper caste vote bank? Or will Mayawati woo away some of them to post a tally that's good enough? For the answers, we'll have to wait till May 11.